Trends Across the AI Frontier — George Cameron, ArtificialAnalysis.ai
Jul 8, 2025 · 17:52
George Cameron of Artificial Analysis presents multiple frontiers—reasoning, open-weights, cost, speed—across the AI stack, arguing that trade-offs between intelligence, latency, and expense are critical for building applications. Reasoning models like O4 mini high use an order of magnitude more output tokens (72M vs GPT-4.1's 7M) and take over 40 seconds per response versus 4.7 seconds, impacting agentic workflows where 30 sequential calls multiply latency. The open-weights gap has nearly closed, with China-based labs like DeepSeek R1 and Alibaba's Qwen 3 leading. O3 cost roughly $2,000 to run the intelligence index, while GPT-4.1 nano is over 500 times cheaper. Output speeds have jumped from GPT-4's 40 tokens/s in 2023 to over 1,000 on a B200 accelerator. Despite efficiency gains, demand for compute will keep rising due to larger models, reasoning’s extra tokens, and multi-step agents.
