A Taxonomy for Next-gen Reasoning — Nathan Lambert, Allen Institute (AI2) & Interconnects.ai
Jul 19, 2025 · 19:21
Nathan Lambert, senior research scientist at AI2 and founder of Interconnects.ai, argues that next-generation reasoning models require a taxonomy of four traits: skills, calibration, strategy, and abstraction. While current models excel at math and code (skills), they overthink easy problems, wasting tokens and latency—calibration is needed to match output length to task difficulty. The real frontier is planning: models must learn strategy (choosing the right direction) and abstraction (breaking problems into tractable sub-tasks) to enable long-horizon agents like Deep Research and Claude Code. Lambert traces how OpenAI's Q*→Strawberry→o1 took 12–18 months of human data to teach backtracking and verification; planning should be easier because humans can write 5-step plans. He predicts post-training compute could reach parity with pre-training, citing DeepSeek's shift from 0.18% post-training compute in V3 to an estimated 10–20% for R1. The path forward: collect diverse verifiable questions, filter by difficulty, run stable RL—then scale.
